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Market information: Tim Kuniskis, the boss of Dodge and Ram, has returned to Stratlandis Stratlandis. Earlier in 2024, Tim Kuniskis resigned as an executive in Stellantis.Spot gold rose by 1.5% in the day to $2,672.85 per ounce.Interpretation of Guangfa Strategy December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this may well mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened. Specific to economic work, the first priority is to "expand domestic demand", and the expression of "stabilize the property market and stock market" is more straightforward: the importance of expanding domestic demand is unquestionable, which alleviates the concern of "whether to only resolve risks and lack demand stimulation" in the early stage of the market; In September, the Politburo meeting stated that the stock market should strive to boost the capital market and the property market should "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". This meeting was more direct in its determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market.

Ukraine's national natural gas transportation company said that on December 10th, Russia nominated 42.34 million cubic meters of natural gas at Sudan border crossing, compared with 42.31 million cubic meters on December 9th.Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England: The repricing of the national debt after the budget is indeed very orderly.Valin Steel: The subsidiary plans to invest 2.499 billion yuan to build the technology development and industrial application project of extra-large diameter seamless steel pipe continuous rolling. Valin Steel announced that the subsidiary Valin Henggang plans to invest 2.499 billion yuan to build the technology development and industrial application project of extra-large diameter seamless steel pipe continuous rolling, and build the first advanced continuous rolling pipe production line with the largest diameter in the world. The construction period of the project is 18 months. After completion, Valin Henggang can realize the continuous rolling production of extra-large diameter seamless steel pipes with an outer diameter of φ 323 mm ~ 610 mm and a wall thickness of 7.3 mm ~ 60 mm. The project is funded by bank loans of 1-1.5 billion yuan, shareholders' capital increase of 1 billion yuan and their own funds.

WTI crude oil rose more than 2.00% in a day, and now it is reported at 68.33 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil is now up 1.8%.Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.The word "moderate easing" releases the economic signal next year. On December 9, an important meeting was held. The meeting analyzed and studied the economic work in 2025, and mentioned that a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year. Since 2011, China has maintained a sound monetary policy tone for a long time. This time, the prefix of monetary policy has changed to "moderately loose", which means that economic policy will provide more liquidity next year. (Yuyuan Tan Tian)